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A prominent crypto pundit has outlined a compelling case for the Bitcoin price outlook, predicting a surge to a target as high as $260,000 this bull cycle. However, a critical invalidation level stands in the way of this bullish scenario, threatening Bitcoin’s projected rally if breached.
On March 26, Gert van Lagen, a well-known crypto analyst on the X social media platform, predicted that the Bitcoin price could hit a bullish target between $200,000 and $300,000. The analyst’s chart suggests that Bitcoin’s price action in the past few years has closely followed a classic market cycle structure, moving through the Accumulation, Redistribution, Re-accumulation, and Distribution phases.
Bitcoin Price Eyes New ATH Above $260,000
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After consolidating for seven months in mid-2023 – early 2024, Bitcoin formed a range, allowing the market to absorb supply before another price breakout. Notably, this trend continued in 2025, with BTC breaking out of a seven-month re-accumulation phase.
Based on the trajectory of Lagen’s price chart, Bitcoin’s next leg up is a sharp rise to $240,000, followed by a brief correction before rallying to a price peak between $290,000 and $300,000. After hitting this ATH, the analyst predicts that Bitcoin will decline and undergo a period of choppy trading, experiencing price fluctuations between $220,000 and $260,000.
Interestingly, Bitcoin’s projected rise to an ATH and the following sideways trading are expected to occur during its distribution phase, which is typically characterized by increased sell-offs and market volatility. Once BTC experiences a final surge to $260,000, Lagen predicts a price crash toward $148,000 – $136,000, marking the possible end of the bull rally and the start of the bear market.
Key Invalidation Level Threatening BTC’s Rally
Lagen’s optimistic price forecast for Bitcoin is being threatened by a key invalidation level, which could halt the cryptocurrency’s potential surge to $200,000 – $300,000. Although Bitcoin’s bullish structure remains intact, the analyst warns that a weekly close below the 40-week LSMA would invalidate its breakout.
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As of writing, the Bitcoin price is consolidating above this key invalidation level at $73,900. As long as it holds above this level, Lagen believes that its bullish trajectory will be sustained. However, a drop below $73,900, which already represents a 15% decline from BTC’s current market price, could postpone the projected surge or cancel it altogether.
Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com