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Dogecoin’s newest market construction is “considerably higher than in prior bull markets,” in accordance with Kevin, the crypto technician recognized on X and YouTube as @Kev_Capital_TA. In a video launched Friday, the analyst mapped Dogecoin’s three historic cycles, concluding that the memecoin’s present breakout-and-retest sample locations a long-term Fibonacci extension at $3.80–$3.90 squarely “on the desk”—supplied one key situation holds: Bitcoin should hold grinding greater.
“Two cycles in a row, Dogecoin has tagged the 1.618 fib extension,” Kevin reminded viewers. “Right here we’re within the third cycle… we’ve proof to recommend it has occurred 100% of the time. It’s solely two information factors, although, so that might simply not occur this time.”
Why $3.80 Per Dogecoin Is Attainable This Cycle
On a log-scale weekly chart, Kevin traced Dogecoin’s first super-cycle—consolidation, breakout, mid-cycle pullback, blow-off prime—culminating on the 1.618 extension. The second cycle repeated the sample, however “Elon Musk’s Saturday Night Live hype” punched value far past the fib goal into euphoric territory.
As we speak’s third cycle, he argued, appears to be like more healthy: successive breakouts and back-tests of the bear-market vary have carved a rising channel of upper highs and better lows anchored by the 200-week EMA/SMA cluster. “This construction appears to be like actually good to me… escape, back-test the 200s, make a better low—it’s textbook.”
On the month-to-month chart, the Relative Energy Index is “simply power—fixed greater lows,” nonetheless far beneath the 80-to-90 zone that capped prior cycle tops. Kevin additionally flagged a V-shaped curl within the month-to-month Stoch RSI—a sign that “ought to present the momentum we have to actually get a sturdy run greater” as soon as it crosses the 20 line.
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The 2-week Market Cipher readout reveals three years of progressively stronger momentum waves and money-flow inflows. “That is big-time stuff,” he mentioned, circling every growth. “Momentum is compressing and constructing to a degree the place it’s like, okay, now it’s time to launch it.”
A contemporary two-week Stoch RSI cross traditionally precedes “bang, massive transfer greater,” he added, implying that the post-halving part might usher in Dogecoin’s next parabolic leg.
For merchants fixated on nearer horizons, Kevin highlighted a macro golden pocket stretching from $0.26 to $0.285, bolstered by the every day 200-SMA at $0.27. That zone caps a creating bull-flag whose measured transfer targets $0.32–0.33. The sample sprang out of an inverse head-and-shoulders accumulation at $0.15, a degree he “collected closely,” now up roughly 60%.
“Deal with resistance as resistance till it isn’t,” he cautioned, noting that Bitcoin dominance close to 64% nonetheless siphons liquidity from altcoins. But he sees “critical indicators” that dominance has printed a neighborhood prime at 65.45%, opening room for a rotation into majors like Ethereum and, by proxy, Dogecoin.
This Wants To Occur
If Bitcoin stability endures and macro circumstances—softening inflation, regular labor information, potential Fed easing—stay supportive, Kevin’s subsequent “fundamental value goal” is the 2021 all-time excessive just below $1.00. A decisive break there would flip eyes to the cycle’s 1.618 extension close to $3.80.
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“I’d be shocked at this level if we don’t go to that degree,” he mentioned, whereas stressing disciplined profit-taking: “There’s nothing worse than driving a transfer all the way in which up and never taking earnings.”
Kevin rebuffed the wilder six-and-seven-dollar predictions circulating on social media however insisted {that a} $3-plus Dogecoin is “completely attainable” if Bitcoin pushes towards $200,000, quantitative tightening ends, and a full-blown altcoin season erupts.
Dogecoin stays “some of the standard cryptocurrencies on the planet,” the analyst noticed. “When retail comes piling again in, they’re all the time piling again into Dogecoin.” That psychological suggestions loop, mixed with a structurally bullish chart and enhancing momentum gauges, underpins his conviction that the memecoin might reprise its function because the spearhead of a broader altcoin surge.
Whether or not the market delivers the mandatory macro tailwinds is the wildcard. However Kevin’s message was unambiguous: for now, Dogecoin’s technical canvas paints a reputable path to $1, and the elusive $3.80 marker “is feasible—if Bitcoin holds floor and the macro stays peachy.”
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.243.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com